<Music> Welcome to Party Politics, where we prepare you for your next political conversation.

I'm Jeronimo Cortina.

And I'm Brandon Rottinghaus.

We are political science professors at the University of Houston.

And of course, here in Houston Public Media, we are bringing you all the news pre-primary.

Unfortunately, it's getting nasty out there and the primary is definitely in full swing.

And we have even more bad news.

And that's that.

There's some notable deaths, involving politics and Texas.

The first is that Reverend Jesse Jackson's passed away He had a storied career as a civil rights activist, and that led in to protest, politics that led to the politics of, running for office.

So as an icon, what is his status in politics and especially the Democratic Party?

Well, I think that the most interesting part is, after the assassination of Reverend Martin Luther King Jr.

He took basically the leadership of the movement right, of the Civil Rights Movement.

Yeah.

So I think that that was very interesting to see how he started to build step by step and build a more coherent and cohesive Civil Rights Movement.

He also was a two time presidential candidate.

He brought, in terms of national politics, very interesting coalitions together.

And he was always, moving forward after, taking the lead of the movement, quote unquote, or at least, one of the main, I would say leaders within, within that movement until, Barack Obama's, presidential election.

Right.

So I think that between that time and Obama's, election, I think that is just one of the most interesting political lives that we have seen.

I think so in these modern times.

Makes total sense to me.

Yeah.

And, we forget a lot about the struggle that takes place between the civil rights movement and the modern moment, especially when Brock Obama's like the president.

But Jesse Jackson was at the tip of the spear on a bunch of these things, including like the election of Douglas Wilder in Virginia.

Right.

A bunch of black mayors were elected in the 80s and 90s.

So there was a tremendous movement that, you know, he was really kind of at the vanguard of.

So that's really interesting.

I actually had a tape of the 1988 convention speech that he gave.

Of course, he lost that race, but it became a real kind of rallying cry for Democrats to be more inclusive.

And I had this tape literally tape my friend.

Remember cassette tapes?

Yeah.

Yes.

My college roommate and I would drive places whenever we drove places.

We listened to Jesse Jackson's 1988 convention speech, which is still one of the best speeches.

Yeah.

Ever given.

So, that is a pretty impressive legacy.

And although the Democratic Party didn't respond kind of quickly and sort of embrace all those things, eventually they did.

And that's real impact.

That's power.

In addition, there's a Sesame Street connection, there's an NPR, PBS connection, and that's that.

He was famous for reciting the I Am Somebody poem on Sesame Street, which is kind of an iconic moment right in the early 70s.

So, yeah, kind of an impressive career when you get to span all those different things.

Other sad news, actor Robert Duvall has passed away.

Other sad news, actor Robert Duvall has passed away.

He's famous for all kinds of different indie movies in the 70s, all the way through leading roles in the 80s and 90s, and of course, Captain McCrae from Lonesome Dove.

He will be greatly missed.

And obviously his Texans, the Mini-Series that was produced, was a cornerstone of so many different kind of origin stories of the Texas back in, in that moment.

So, definitely interesting there.

I think of the two of us.

I'm more of the McCrae and you're more the Call, so we'll have to have a discussion about that.

Fair enough.

We can have a special, program just to discuss that.

I think we should.

All right.

I think people would go for that.

This is an important, iconic moment for Texas, I think.

So sad to see.

And of course, best wishes to his family.

Let's talk about the primary.

We are right at the precipice of this.

Early voting has started.

What are your kind of watching moments?

What are you looking at here in, in the primary that you think we should keep tabs on as we get closer to the end?

So first, I think the five congressional districts that have been redistricted, I think those are very, interesting races, pitting, for example, Democrats against Democrats, Julie Johnson versus Allred.

You have.

Some like you know, party on party violence.

Like.

It's primary season.

It is.

Al Green district versus Menefee is going to be interesting.

Crenshaw also has, you know, folks are like.

That's going to be a tight race.

Yeah, I'll flanking from the right.

So I think those are, very interesting.

Obviously, the Senate race, here.

And then I guess the other ones, I think their, comptroller race is also extremely you know, no one cares about the comptroller or anything like that, but it has a extremely important role in the policymaking process in Texas.

Like you don't you cannot imagine how important that office is.

So those are some of the few that I'm looking at.

Some track now, there's a lot I think that's right.

And, you know, it's sort of thought to be a sleepy primary season.

But there's a lot of stuff happening, and it's going to tell us a lot about the way that the parties are migrating in terms of their ideologies.

Texas has got about 18 million registered voters, about 18.7 million registered voters.

So there's a lot of people out there.

But honestly, most people are not going to be voting.

Yes.

We are seeing pretty robust turnout the first couple of days of early voting.

But like in general, you don't see a lot of those in primaries.

So typically Republicans voting to the tune of about 1.5 million, 2 million people for the whole span of things, Democrats have basically plateaued at about a million.

So it's definitely an indicator of kind of where the strength in parties lie.

But there's a competitive race statewide for the Democratic primary.

So we're definitely going to see those numbers spike a little bit.

But how much we don't know.

Right?

A lot of the chatter in this race has been sort of virtual.

It's been on social media.

So whether it actually translates into on the ground support, you know, we don't know.

But early voting has been pretty robust.

Harris County is voting compared to 2022, is up 200%.

Tarrant County The Democrats outvoted Republicans on day one to the tune of about 2000 votes.

Normally that's flipped, so there is some real energy happening out there.

So I'm definitely watching that to see like where the turnouts higher, you're also seeing the turnout be affected by how much is being spent.

So the Republicans are spending about $1 million in Harris County, and that's compared to about half $1 million for Democrats.

So this is collective.

So it's possible that, like Greg Abbott's attempts to try to make Harris County more red could work in this.

So we know that there's opportunities there for that.

So it's possible that that could be an issue.

But right now Democrats are jazzed up.

And I think you're seeing that play on the ground.

Let's talk about some other kind of internal political tragedies.

This comes from the San Antonio region, and it's involving a congressman.

That's Congressman Tony Gonzalez.

He has been reported to have had an extramarital affair with an aide who then unfortunately killed herself.

This is obviously bad timing for him politically.

It's a tragedy in general, but it definitely has political implications.

What do you think this means for that very tight race?

Well, I mean, I think first of all, it is extremely unfortunate, right, that, that, someone, killed, herself for whatever, reasons, whether this is a reason or not, but that that's just not not the, not the way to do.

And I think it depends.

Right.

This is, a very, salient issue in terms of distinguishing between this.

That in my mind is, a human tragedy, rather than a political scandal.

Right?

Yeah.

Like, does it affect him in particular?

Right.

It does in a way, because obviously, like his, kind of, approach in this was in improper and problematic and that whether it led to it, as you say or not is a different question.

But we are right at the beginning of early voting.

Yeah.

And if you remember from 2022, Van Taylor had the exact same.

Yeah.

Similar problem.

Not exact same problem.

But it was revealed that he was having an affair too, basically dropped his race.

People have called for, for for Gonzales to drop too of course, at the time of a recording he has not.

But he very well might because he's in a pretty competitive primary against Brandon Herrera, who is very conservative and sort of, yes, has been referred to.

I mean, he referred himself this way as the AK guy.

So he's very right leaning.

It's a second race where they run against each other.

This could be a very competitive primary and potentially it could cost Gonzales his seat.

Now we always talk about how scandals don't matter.

And I think that's generally true.

But if it is going to matter, it's going to matter in a primary.

Right.

So that's where I think.

Things are, especially because you're talking about a very particular segment of the electorate.

Right.

And for that particular segment, it may have a very important, implications.

We'll see.

Yeah.

And, you know, Gonzales is running ads basically saying that like, veteran suicide is a huge issue.

The area that he represents is several military bases.

That's a retired military.

So it's a definite prominent issue.

And he's running these ads that are kind of, you know, talking about the tragedy of this.

And so the timing is really bad for him politically.

And it does mean, I think potentially that he's going to be in trouble.

The polling has Herrera up a little over Gonzales.

And so Gonzales needs a really good turnout and probably a good messaging bomb to.

Yeah.

To be able to accomplish this.

But this is not going to let that happen.

So I think in terms of those dynamics it's going to be kind of complicated.

So we'll continue to watch that story and see what happens.

But it does have potential implications to kind of what the delegation looks like from Texas, which as you said is really in flux.

There's a lot of different races.

Oh yeah, that are, you know, going, the primaries that are open.

And we're going to see some of those changes, I think pretty effective.

Let's talk about some statewide races because we've got more scandals, yet more controversy happening.

Greg Abbott's candidates a struggle a little bit.

You've got Don Huffines up big over Kelly Hancock and the control issues, like you said, Sid Miller, who has become a kind of notable enemy of the governor, is, up over, of Nathan Sheets, who's been endorsed by a Governor Abbott.

So obviously there's a lot going on there, but in this week, Nathan Sheets, opened up to, audience he was writing to about his former addiction to pornography, alcoholism, and told about an extramarital affair.

Again, do you think this is going to have an impact on primary voters who are looking at kind of every little detail, right, scrutinizing all the specifics of these candidates?

I mean, yes and no, because I think that, open it up, so publicly on the one hand, yeah, is going to deactivate potential attacks, right coming forward.

And also, I think that it plays well in, the primary electorate, second chances, forgiveness as redemption as I'm a changed man, etc., etc., etc.

and those stories tend to resonate very well.

We haven't seen that so far in, in some of the polls, but I think that politically speaking, without going into the, human nature of, of his announcement, I think that it is a very savvy political issue that eventually, people would know about it.

Yeah, I think he's trying to cut off some of the kind of the sort of whispers about this.

Right.

It hasn't been a story that was publicly reported.

So it became kind of that way after he mentioned it.

Right.

And Sid Miller.

You know, being magnanimous in a press release said, I won't talk any more about this.

And that was the first time I even heard that it happened.

So Miller obviously here trying to play that up a little bit.

But Miller's whole campaign has been basically like, That Sheets is not ready for this job, right?

Doesn't know agriculture, doesn't know farmers.

Right.

And so there are still going to be this tense fight about that.

And that race could be pretty interesting because you could potentially hear see where you've got antagonists to.

Governor Abbott in office controller potentially with Don Huffines if he one wins.

And then you've got, you know, Sid Miller back in the spotlight.

And he could be really interesting to see how the all the executives are exactly agency heads are fighting.

And that is one of the most interesting, I would say, political characteristics of Texas having that, pluralistic and plural executive that have different mandates and different constituents.

It's very interesting.

It's fantastic.

It's been a while since they've had a real battles.

I mean, lieutenant governor and governor often do because there's like a legislative agenda.

Like usually the agencies like are tend to kind of fall in line behind the governor, or at least they had for Governor Abbott.

There have been some high profile debates with Governor Perry when he was in office with the comptroller, but usually they kind of line up behind.

Yeah, but in this case we could see some real friction.

Oh, yeah.

So we'll watch and see how the primaries play out.

But let's talk about the comptroller race for primary, because it was reported this week that Don Huffines, whose family owns a former Epstein ranch in New York, the spokesperson said that the family bought the ranch at public auction and all the proceeds were going to the victims who were, at that ranch, New Mexico lawmakers have approved an investigation into the ranch.

To his point, Don Huffines says, you know, we knew publicly about this.

We didn't hide it.

We were cooperating with, like, law enforcement who if they wanted to come search and look, they could.

So do you think, again, this is sort of political liability for Huffines, who has got a pretty sizable lead, at least in terms of public polling on, on his nearest rival for the comptroller race.

I mean, I don't know.

I'm not so sure about this one.

Yeah.

Because, Huffines has come once again.

Yeah.

Open up full transparency.

I need a public option.

It was not, something that was done, under the cover of a cloak or anything like that.

Right.

And also in the sense that, there is rumors that, the ranch has, some graves of, two girls that were buried in the ranch or near the ranch.

And he said, well, you're more than welcome to come.

So I think, politically, I don't think that is going to have, significant impact on, on, on, on the race.

I think so, too.

And it seems like a little unfair and kind of a cheap shot, right, that this has become kind of an issue.

And Huffines obviously has made this point to the people I watch interview with him and Dana Loesch, who talked about this at length.

They're going to turn the ranch into a camp for people who are Christian, and it's obviously redemption moment for them, and it's a pretty magnanimous thing to do.

It didn't get reported as such, but that, to me is sort of an important element here that, you know, does sort of obviate some of this.

But as you say, the rumors are the most challenging thing here.

Like the, the, the toxic ness of Epstein is so real that, oh, you like this kind of story, which is like removed by a couple of moments is potentially, you know, something that's explosive for him.

So he's had to spend the week explaining all of that instead of talking about the things he wants to talk about.

So again, scandals maybe aren't like the thing that debilitate you.

Exactly.

It's just sort of pushes you off message, but like at the wrong time definitely has this sort of problematic element.

So we'll see if this comes up.

His opponents aren't really talking about it.

And so it's just sort of this the sort of side campaign, but it may get a little nastier as time goes on.

And they're going to check polling and check turnout, just like the rest of us are, and figure out what their strategy is going to be like.

Let's talk about some other big news this week.

And that is the dust up between, let's say, Stephen Colbert and CBS news, but also CBS news and the FCC.

In the middle of all of this is Texas somehow all lead, all roads lead back to Texas.

Here's James Talarico, here's basically the story is that Talarico had taped a segment with Stephen Colbert, and it was yanked from the air because CBS was worried that the FCC was going to get it going to investigate the potential that this was kind of unfair and that you weren't giving equal time to all the candidates.

So their argument was like, you should give equal time to the other people running for office in the same space.

So it just exploded.

It became national news.

Talarico raised $2.5 million literally off of just this.

It got viewed millions and millions of times.

So this is the moment where Talarico may break out.

I mean, he's had a couple of these moments, as has Crockett, but this is happening at the right time for Talarico.

Do you think this is like the kind of final thrust that he needed to be able to win?

Because polling had him kind of behind, right?

I mean, it's not polling in primaries challenge.

So yeah, it's always dicey.

But like, you know, he was down by, you know, 5 or 6 points.

Does this even things up.

Does it put him in the lead.

What do you think?

I mean certainly he was the winner in terms of, what happened with Colbert and FCC and CBS, etc., etc., etc.. Right.

He was, you know.

Just winning and he doesn't have to do anything.

Yeah.

Except to say, well, Trump didn't want you to see this and so excited.

But that's 100% true.

But like yeah.

Sure.

But I mean it certainly gives him an edge.

Right.

But once again here, the real question is the Democrat electorate is, let's say, a little bit disjointed as the Republican electorate is.

Right.

Yeah.

So you have the very progressive right within the progressives.

I think you have different styles.

One style is Talarico and the other one is Crockett.

Right.

And then you have the middle of the road Republican.

You have your, blue collar Democrats, very few, but you still have them somewhere around, especially here in Texas.

So the big question is between Talarico and Crockett, who's going to be more likely to get people out to vote?

It's a good question.

I think they're both pretty likely to get people out to vote, like they're both going to get their numbers.

It's just a question of sort of how much risk you want to build into the model.

And both of them had different kinds of risk.

So that's a question of kind of where you think the electorate's going for a Democrat.

That's hard to know because traditionally, you know, the turnout has been very wonky.

Right.

Like really high in '18, high in '20.

Really bad in '22 and awful in '24.

So like the kind of prospect of trying to game this whole thing out is sort of unclear.

So I think that with that ambiguity creates the sort of.

Right, kind of uncertainty.

But I think in this case that benefits Talarico.

He gets a huge national bump, right?

Which for fundraising purposes is precisely what he needs.

And that's what's happening here.

You know, if this goes to a runoff, is it some chance it might depending on how things shake out, it's conceivable that this could be kind of his momentum forward.

So I do think that there was kind of some, some, some success here that he's found, but obviously it's not the only thing the people are going to be thinking about.

And there are some diehard Crockett fans who say, like, she's the best choice.

Yeah.

Hands down.

This will also spur a moment where other people are going to come to her aid to in terms of finances, so it'll benefit him, but, you know, really benefit.

I think generally Democrats and that's kind of what they need is that momentum.

So on the other side of the equation, we'll talk about a second.

But like that means obviously it's going to put some pressure on those Republicans.

But I want to ask you a question about the FCC in this investigation, so that the kind of ethos has always been that the FCC let talk shows alone.

Right?

So Stephen Colbert show Johnny Carson.

Yeah, let's go back in the day.

I know you're a fan of Johnny Carson from way back when.

Yeah, yeah.

As a, as a, as a senior.

Johnny Conales as well.

Oh, yeah.

There you go.

Wow.

But that's a different, different different topic.

Different, but still good.

Jack Benny, for you.

Too all the way back when.

Yeah.

Yeah, sure.

No, I actually I love Jack Benny, so, like 100%, but, like, I think that the, kind of question here that is being raised is the subtext beyond just the sort of politics of Texas is that there's a concern the Trump administration is overreaching on this, and they're applying the equal time rule to strenuously yes, to even talk show.

So Stephen Colbert, you know, said, basically, FCC, you write like you can't investigate in this way.

Do you think that's going to have any traction with Democrats?

I mean, yes, and the real problem here is that what the right hand does, eventually the left hand is going to do right?

So one of the bedrock, I would say solid principles of American democracy is having a free press.

The moment that you have a press that is not 100% free from governmental intervention inference.

Hence wink, winks or whatever, then you lose a very important, footing on what democracy is.

Yeah.

The Founding Fathers thought of, the press, the free press as a fourth pillar of democracy to keep government elected officials accountable.

Yeah.

So that interference is like, I don't know.

Yeah.

Like, how tight of a hand should it be?

And, you know, how it should be applied.

It's a good.

Question because the ruling has no change.

Right.

It was only the say, well I might now do x, Y and Z. Yeah.

While CBS is in talks to, purchase, you know, Discovery Channel, etc., etc., etc.. So it's like Yeah.

All these things are related to some degree and I think yeah, certainly Texas got swept up in this.

That's a project and concept for a different time.

But for sure it has implications for the Senate race.

And the Senate race on the Republican side continues this.

Jeronimo, might be the most expensive race in American history.

When all is said and done.

Right now, it's number two.

A $100 million have been spent on ads and everything all in for this Senate race.

So it's pretty sizable.

Donald Trump still undecided, like a lot of Republicans, a lot of Democrats going to have to make his decision, up at the booth, but he said basically he likes all three of Republicans running.

He says that Cornyn is a good man, but he also likes the other two.

You have, Ken Paxton, doing, one of his very few in-person events in Tyler saying that, you know, actually kind of pulling punches, saying, like, you know, these are all different styles of governing.

I have my own style of governing.

Didn't really throw a punch at John Cornyn in which it's kind of surprising, even though he's been throwing punches at Wesley Hunt.

Rick Perry is back in the mix.

He's spent, $18 million through a super PAC to get John Cornyn back and said he'll spend whatever's needed to make that happen.

Perry, though, is he found out the hard way is to basically a pariah to the party the same way that Kay Bailey Hutchison was when Perry was running for governor.

The way they like labeled her is the way that John Cornyn is being labeled.

So what do you make of the kind of thrust of the Republican side?

It's going to be a runoff, for sure.

The question of.

Who gets to the runoff.

right.

I mean, and again, the issue here is whoever wins the runoff election, that person is going to be wounded.

And and that person is going to be, needing a lot of E.R.

care.

Yeah.

Especially when you think about money.

So if you're thinking now that 100 million has been spent, geez.

Like, all together, it's going to be pretty pricey.

And and then the general election.

Right.

Well, and here's the thing.

Like John Cornyn is the money bag of the Republican Party.

If he's not in the race, then a lot of that money might dry up and go elsewhere.

Oh yeah, Republicans are worried about not just Cornyn winning, but also like the money that represents.

So yeah, let's talk about Trump because he weighed in on a bunch of primaries too.

He weighed in on 38.

Congressional district nine.

Alex Mealler got the endorsement You also have him endorsing Carlos de la Cruz over John Luhan.

Right.

Think about this.

You had Briscoe Cain and you had John Lujan in the Texas house stumping for Trump, getting his maps passed.

Right.

And he didn't endorse them.

Yeah, that could have sizable consequences here in terms of how that goes.

The other thing to note is that Abbott has endorsed Cain in our congressional District nine.

As well as endorsing Lujan in 38 down south.

So I wonder if that divide could be potentially a power struggle between Trump Republicans and Abbott Republicans.

The extent to which is any kind of a daylight between the two, I mean.

And.

Sure.

And but also it's not the first, indication.

Remember, a couple of weeks ago, Governor Abbott said that he would he did not think that nationalizing elections was the right, move, or something like that.

Right, against, President Trump, whether it was misinterpreted or not.

What that is, what Governor Abbott said.

And then I think that Governor Abbott, backing up these candidates is just consistency of what he has been doing, doing the the legislative session.

He's backing his house.

Exactly.

And that makes total sense.

I don't think there's any conspiracy.

You know, I don't think Trump is personally picking people.

It's just they're looking for these opportunities to see who can win.

And frankly, Mealler is polling ahead.

De la Cruz is polling ahead.

So I think that's probably part of it.

Trump needs to pick winners just like the rest of us need to pick winners.

And we're going to find soon enough who wins in the primary election cycle.

But for this week, that's it.

I'm Jeronimo Cortina.

And I'm Brandon Rottinghaus.

The conversation keeps up next week <Music>