<Music> Welcome to Party Politics, where we prepare you for your next political conversation.

I'm Jeronimo Cortina.

And I'm Brandon Rottinghaus, we're political science professors here at the University of Houston.

Thanks for hanging out and talking politics with us.

This week is like F1 and the World Cup together for us.

State of the Union.

And you've got the primary and there's still a lot going on.

In addition to the Supreme Court knocking down Donald Trump's signature economic issues.

And we'll start with some controversy south of the border.

I am not talking about the lack of Topo Chico, which to me has been like a real gut check.

I'm talking about the cartel violence, which for a couple of days looked really dangerous.

Some flights were canceled.

The State Department issued travel warnings.

Governor.

Governor Greg Abbott sent DHS to the border in case there any spillover violence.

Tell us what's going on.

So apparently, well not apparently.

The Mexican government basically captured one of the most important, cartel leaders in Mexico, these, cartel organization, new Jalisco New Generation or Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación that has listened to these a prison in over 40 countries.

They're involved from drug trafficking, human smuggling, illegal mining, extortion, everything that you can imagine.

Right.

And this has been, growing for over the past, ten years.

So also, it's one of the cartels that is very, very, very violent.

Not only in terms of what they do to their victims, but also in terms of these intra cartel war.

So, this week, they just, basically, located with, intelligence from the U.S.. So that was sheer intelligence.

Some calls were intercepted, this and that, etc., etc.

pinpoint.

And then, the Mexican Army and the National Guard just capture him.

And then, I guess during the scuffle, he he died.

Okay.

So now the consequences for the consequences.

On the one hand, this is good for, especially, pressing, Claudia Sheinbaum.

Because President Trump has been saying and I think in, in a way, rightly so, that, Mexico has a cartel problem.

And in many cases and in many instances, there has been indication that government officials are involved with that.

Right?

Okay.

So this is, a good, show of faith, to President Trump and, states that Mexico is actually really working against this thing.

So let's check.

Right.

But now the problem, as always happens, is that these cartel now is going to be fracture.

Okay.

Right.

You're talking about a multi-billion dollar operation.

And what are the implications of that?

More violence.

Exactly.

Different kind of.

Exactly.

So you have, the number one.

Well, number one is gone, but number two, number two is gone.

But then you have number three, number four and number five.

Right.

Ready to say, well now it's my turn.

Yeah.

And then in order to take kind of power.

You've got to say by yourself yes.

They fight each other these and that.

Opening another avenue for other cartels to see a witness and start another problem.

Right.

In Sinaloa we have had these for past at least, months, right, this violence that have not been controlled by the government.

Right.

So the government, the Mexican government has, I think one option only.

Right.

And that option only is, to use the force of the state to use the force of the sovereign state to enforce the social contract that Rousseau talks hundreds of years ago.

I'm sure they're all like, yeah, reading the classics.

It's hard political theory.

It's just the use of of, I guess the, the, the force, the full force of the state to bring, law and order to this place.

Is this is this the Mexican government capable of reducing the violence and quelling the violence in this, or this is going to spiral in a bad way that could lead into kind of the effect happening here or violence happening in Texas or in the United States.

So, yes.

I think so.

Especially if the Mexican government accepts, help from the United States.

Okay.

So when you're talking about these cartels, especially these, Jalisco Nueva Generación Generación is a very sophisticated cartel, has a lot of weapons, right?

Weapons akin to a, small government.

Yeah.

So they're very technical.

They're well trained.

They know what they're doing.

So in order to, basically fight them over.

Yeah, you need to be that plus 50% or more.

The Mexican government, the Mexican Army, the Marines, etc., etc., have the training, have the arms, but they need that push, and that push is going to be, intelligence from the U.S.

If they do that, they can control that.

But you need to follow it.

Right, right, right.

You need to follow the trace until the last one is gone.

Gotcha.

Okay.

Well we'll keep monitoring this and obviously we'll see developments unfold as things go.

Let's talk about other international political interests.

Right.

And that's the president's signature economic policy.

His cherished tariffs have been knocked down by the Supreme Court.

In a 6-3 decision, the Chief justice wrote an opinion basically that said that the president can't use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act that was passed in 1977 to import and to impose tariffs on imports.

The president quickly shifted after taking a little swipe at the Supreme Court and said they're going to use a different law to effectively put these tariffs into place.

Not the same degree, but they're obviously going to use some tariffs that are justified and allowable by that.

But the catch here is that Congress has to approve it after 150 days.

The president obviously talked about this at the state of the Union.

We'll get into this in a few minutes.

But the question here is whether or not the tariffs are still popular enough.

The president wants to continue them.

I think the answer is no, but the president will continue them.

It's putting some Republicans in a bit of a tough spot because many of them look at the kind of rising cost of living and these tariffs as being jointly connected.

So how do you think this is going to play out politically for the president and for Republicans on the ground who have to defend this once again?

So you have a couple of issues.

And the first one is, all the money that was collected from the tariffs.

Yeah, that's the.

Where's my Refund?

Yeah.

Exactly.

Right.

Let's see that money.

And the problem is that now.

But does it have to come.

Well, now is going to be in the courts, lower courts trying to figure it out.

What's going to happen to that money.

Right.

Yeah.

But obviously, you know, importers, small businesses, intermediaries are saying, hello, I need that money back, right?

Because you grafted or you impose these tariffs and these tariffs are illegal.

Yeah.

Are unconstitutional therefore you cannot keep that money.

Yeah.

I mean, just think about, you know, the normal rule of law, right.

If the government does something unconstitutional.

Yeah there has to be restitution one way or the other.

Yeah.

It's a prolonged problem for the administration because even if they give the money back, which I am not sure will happen, it's certainly the case that it won't happen anytime soon.

And so you're talking about an extended period where they have to continue to defend this and fight this battle publicly about whether they're going to give the money back and how they're going to give the money back and how much people are going to get.

Meanwhile, two thirds of the public disagree with the tariff policy, and it's creating additional pressure on inflation.

So it's definitely an issue.

But for Democrats, they're pleased because they're basically using this as a prize.

They can look at this.

Oh yeah.

Say look you know this is what we've been telling you.

The whole process was flawed.

The fact that it happened is hurting your affordability on the ground.

And you've got candidates probably for president, like JB Pritzker from Illinois, the governor saying you owe every Illinois-ian, $1,700.

That's a lot of money.

And even though there's a big pool of it, it still is going to be complicated to get back to the American people's pocketbooks.

Well, yeah.

And politically, I don't know if the president I mean, he cannot go back.

Right?

Right.

Yeah.

He has been full.

He doubled down basically.

Oh, absolutely.

He cannot go back.

It's going to be 150 days.

And then I don't know what's going to happen.

But in any case, I think that, the president would win, right.

because if, Congress folds down, under Democratic control.

Yeah.

Then the president has just, you know.

Yeah, blame the Democrats and and but.

Then he doesn't get his tariffs.

And then the same problem where it's like they're collecting this money that like, accrues to a bank account that then just gets, you know, kind of well, but.

Yeah, but you know, 150 I mean, I think that the 150 day tariff.

That is legal.

Right.

And so the government can keep that money.

Yeah.

Okay.

Yeah.

But then the problem is.

Yeah.

The other money after that.

Yeah.

Yeah.

He's like give me my money, buy.

Me that money.

Well certainly asking for another country or other companies are going to sue to see.

So we'll continue to monitor this.

But it has serious implications to the politics of the midterms because obviously we've been saying I'm still, you know, obviously incumbent presidents really suffer at the polls.

And so the fact that this is an issue indexed into affordability is going to be a problem.

Obviously, this was the subject of a lot of discussion at the State of the Union.

This was obviously a big moment for the president.

Every State of the Union is how do you think the president performed?

It was that: a performance.

Yeah.

Right.

Or I mean, well, I mean, he started, I think, just saying stuff about his administration, you know, how the economy's going, etc., etc.. Some, I guess, you know, wins in terms of immigration policy from his perspective, etc., etc.

but suddenly and suddenly everything changed.

The US hockey team shows up and like and then boom, Medal of Honor is given to everybody.

Yeah.

I thought that was a moment of like, rare bipartisanship.

The hockey, I think was the start of it.

And they had, you know, Medal of Honor is given to some of these.

The goalkeeper.

Yeah.

From soldiers.

Well to the goalkeeper too, but yeah.

To these four military members.

That was a good moment.

Maybe one of the few where there was actual right.

Bipartisanship.

Correct.

That in sort of sort of the question about congressional stock trading.

Right.

Which has been a point of contention for a lot of different candidates.

And the both parties have people in it who are saying we should ban members of Congress from trading.

So this is, I think, maybe the momentum that it that policy needs.

It's been hard to get that through.

They've tried already.

And it hasn't.

So that could be one of those things.

But to me it was a little light on policy.

I mean, were there anything we stood out to you in terms of policy recommendations, something that you think Congress will jump zero?

Yeah, I mean, there was nothing.

Yeah.

I mean, there was a lot of talk.

Even when we think about international relations, it was like, yeah, Iran.

But no, but yeah, so maybe who knows.

So there was no clear indication of where it is.

And then a lot of, I would say, things that do not necessarily match the reality of the average American.

Yeah.

In terms of affordability.

Yeah.

In terms of going to the supermarket, etc., etc., etc.. So that is extremely complicated for the president because he wants to a certain extent catering to his base.

But we know exactly that he won last election because he had a coalition, and that coalition included independents, included people middle in the road that were completely fed up of the economic situation.

And we are in the same, I think, stage as we were in the last year of the Biden administration.

Right.

The macro doing fantastic, right Yeah.

Then the micro, not doing so gre So.

Well.

Yeah.

And you look at the price of goods, you look at the rising cost of health care.

You look at kind of sort of stable but not growing economic growth.

These are all issues.

Definitely.

They're going to come to haunt the president and Republicans.

So there's definitely that.

I think you're right.

The president painted a very rosy picture of the economy that I think for a lot of Americans, doesn't match their reality.

He talked a lot about, you know, and have repeated this refrain about so much winning.

People are getting tired of it.

I don't know if that's selling anymore.

Yeah.

He talked about how America is back and this is the hottest country.

I don't know about that either.

Like my numbers don't bear that out.

And I don't think people really believe it.

And you can't talk people into a good economy.

You can talk people into saving money.

We know from scholarship that there are some economic consequences to how presidents talk about things, but you can't convince people that the economy is going really well when they're struggling to make ends meet.

So those are real concerns.

correct.

I think the Republicans were looking for him for a bit of cover.

He didn't give them that cover.

The issues he chose didn't really match with what Republicans, I think are looking for legislatively.

The lack of reality here was definitely a problem for a lot of Republicans who were trying to sell the economic message from Republicans generally to the people.

He did give them some talking points, and I think we'll see those talking points repeat.

But those aren't points necessarily that are going to land that great.

Well, but those talking points, I think and I think you're 100% right.

Those talking points are once again very divisive, right.

Especially when you're thinking about immigration.

Yeah.

And when he did that moment and said, if you agree with me, the American government should protect, American citizens not illegal immigrants, Stand up.

Yeah.

And then Democrats did not.

Republicans did.

And that is just once again, like just putting the wedge a little bit further.

Right, to be more divisive.

And the problem is, I think that independent voters, especially also young voters, are fed up, like completely fed up in terms of the vitriol, in terms of the divisiveness and in terms of the lack of clear, future opportunities.

Yeah.

It's like.

Okay, stand up.

If you stop beating your wife like there's no winning.

And I think it just lands, I think flat for a lot of people who are looking for real solutions.

So that's why I ask you about these policy concerns, because there are things that he added here that, you know, could potentially move the needle a little bit.

He talked about protecting Medicare and Social Security.

That's a given.

He talked about banning commercial driver's licenses to undocumented immigrants.

Talked about retirement accounts that federal workers have for other kinds of workers.

Right.

A lot of these things are just either things that are going to happen anyway because of the way the budgets work or things that they've tried and aren't working.

So the retirement account issue was something that Biden tried to start and didn't go anywhere.

And it's like likely not to go anywhere here either.

So not much happening there.

You know, he certainly talked a lot about the kind of way that foreign policy was going to unfold.

And to me, this again, is a complicated story for the president.

There already a sizable number of people who think he's not focusing on the issues that they care about to talk more about foreign policy, which he did for about two, third for about one third of the speech.

Isn't something I think that's going to sit well with them.

He managed not to kind of raise too big of an alarm and manage not to saber rattle too much, but he didn't really sell it.

And he has to.

Right, because this is going to be a significant oh.

Yeah.

Event and moment in the next few months.

And that plus tariffs means he's got to really connect to people on this.

Telling them how this is going to be effective at stemming the flow of drugs or creating economic possibilities in the US.

But he didn't do a great job at that.

A lot of it was spent, you know, talking about, you know, kind of how crazy the Democrats were and excoriated him for not standing.

And I don't know, do you think it's time for the state of the Union to be done in a different format?

Yeah.

Just send send a, written report.

Send me a text.

Yeah.

No, just a written report.

Run it through turnitin.com just to see if there's any plagiarism, Jefferson style.

Actually, this is a great.

And that's that's it.

I mean, right, the issue is that it has lost.

Right.

Democrats heckle, Republicans heckle when you have a, a Democratic president.

Yeah.

And he's president.

Is basically giving a stump speech.

Right.

And early this speech is very much similar to other stadiums.

Oh, yes.

Absolutely.

Yeah.

And they're getting longer and longer and people aren't paying attention.

Oh no.

Attention spans are getting longer.

Right.

I think this is yeah, maybe a moment where it's kind of the end of the state of the Union as we know it.

We'll see how this plays out.

I'm curious about this because, you know, I study this and this is sort.

Of a which is a riveting.

Topic.

It is riveting.

Yeah.

Yeah.

We've talked for, for oh yeah, at least six minutes.

There we go.

Well I'll stay on topic.

We'll continue to talk about President Trump because what else could we talk about in American politics these days.

He's coming to Texas.

What's going on?

Why is he coming to Texas in the middle of these primaries?

Well, I think, to boost turnout, the booster now and and also get a little money here and there, for, the midterms.

The presidents think about that.

Well, it's going to be.

You get to ride on Air Force One.

I take as many chances.

Oh, yeah.

Like fly me wherever.

Absolutely.

And and, it's going to be a very expensive midterm election.

Right.

So he needs to be here.

As you know, President Trump, even here in Texas, he's still popular, but not as popular as you would expect.

And that has to do with the way that his electoral coalition worked.

And also he needs to be, trying to reach out to those strongholds in order to try to hold the fort for the midterm elections.

I think you're exactly right.

And the fact that he's coming here to me is a signal that they're worried.

Oh, yeah, they're not going to get the numbers they need, that those candidates are not going to be successful.

He has to strategically protect the people who he's endorsed.

Now, of course, none of the Senate candidates are coming for U.S.

Senate because they haven't been endorsed.

But a lot of House candidates are coming.

Greg Abbott's going to be there.

So it'll be a kind of Republican rally, but it won't include some of the key moments in key races that the Republicans are really worried about.

So that'll be to be seen.

But I think the reason this is happening is twofold.

Number one, this is a national race.

Texas is a national political story, right?

All of these races are now that way.

We've talked about Senate District nine in Ryan, Texas, at nauseum.

Everyone has mentioned this.

I talked to national reporters, and they even know how the dynamics of Tarrant County works.

Oh, you know, and this isn't something people typically are have on their radar.

So Texas is now a national politica state.

Yes.

And I think that's why you're seeing this happen.

The other is that Texas is a Republican bellwether.

If Texas falls or slips in any way in terms of that red wall, then it will be a signal that things are not going well for Republicans or for Donald Trump.

So he has to come here personally to make sure that doesn't happen.

And I think that's partly kind of what he's going to be up to.

But lots more intrigue happening across the Lone Star State.

Let's take this over to San Antonio, to El Paso region.

And that's Tony Gonzales.

Yeah.

Is still battling on this scandal about, one of his former staffers who committed suicide in a very gruesome way.

The staffer, apparently was distraught because her husband was also having an affair.

And it has become quite the political mess.

But to add to this, you see Speaker Johnson this week basically defending, right, Tony Gonzales saying, you know, we endorsed him before.

We're going to wait till all the evidence comes out.

Some members of the Republican caucus have said that he should resign.

Lauren Boebert and Nancy Mace have said that he should flat out resign.

Brandon Gill has said that he should end his reelection bid but not resign.

You've got Troy Nehls from Sugarland here saying the quiet part out loud, which is that Republicans cannot afford to have him resign.

That would mean the margin shrinks to 217, which is way too close for comfort.

Yeah.

The fact that this comes at a very precarious moment for Republicans is a danger to the caucus.

But obviously it means potentially that you could see Tony Gonzales losing his seat if he loses the seat.

There's a chance that this seat could be in play for Democrats, because the likely winner of that primary would be Brandon Herrera, who's otherwise known as not AK guy.

Right.

Very extreme, very conservative, especially on gun issues.

It might not play well in a general election when you've got the Republicans running scared and you've got Democrats resurgent.

So a lot of things are happening because of this one event.

So what's your kind of analysis of how this is going to play out and what it means for like national politics?

I mean, I see both points.

But strategically speaking is, a very tough decision.

Obviously, Tony Gonzales has said, well, not everything has been put on the table, right.

And, there is a lot of context and a lot of things that are missing.

We don't know what's going to be.

We don't know what he's going to say or anything like that.

But that's, I guess, the defense.

Speaker Johnson, is offering public opinion.

But yeah, absolutely.

The problem with extreme candidates, and especially when you look at, his district, his district is, yes, is pro-Trump, but not, 11,000% red.

It's not like a 20%, you know, it's like a no, you know, 15, 11 to 15%, which again, is when a Democrat.

Yeah.

In a world they're.

In an election.

Are pretty tough.

Well, in an election that, you're basically supporting or not supporting President Trump's agenda.

Yeah.

Here's another connection.

And that is that you may see incumbents lose in a very rare moment.

The last time a Republican incumbent lost in a primary was 2014.

Ralph Hall lost in North Texas.

He was a former Democrat turned Republican.

One of the last few.

And that would be a pretty rare occurrence.

So it could be that he loses and potentially Dan Crenshaw might lose in addition to possibly John Cornyn.

So one news there is that Senator Cruz endorsed Steve Toth over Crenshaw.

Right.

Remember, Crenshaw is the only other Republican incumbent to not get a Trump endorsement, partly because of their divide on foreign policy.

So that would be pretty interesting to see how it came about.

And we're seeing that divide pretty apparent.

But let's talk about turnout, because yes, there is a lot going on and we're seeing a spike in Democratic turnout.

The enthusiasm is pretty high, especially among the base, the what we call quad D Democrats.

That is, people who vote in all of the last four Democratic primaries, the turnouts 22%.

The same for Republicans.

The quad R's are only turning out at 17%.

The number of voters who were otherwise, kind of 1 or 2.

D Democrats aren't coming at as big A numbers, but they're still coming.

You're seeing turnout pretty high in big places like Dallas County.

Good for Crockett, Travis County, good for Talarico, Harris County, probably good for Crockett, but it kind of splits.

Mostly you're seeing in Harris County people voting who had voted in the past in primaries but typically didn't vote in primary.

So they're not new to voting because they are voting.

They're not usually voting in primaries.

So this is good for Democrats, though, because they need more targets of opportunity, right?

We know from looking at how voting works that the best indicator of how a person's going to vote or if they're going to vote is whether they voted before.

So Democrats need that momentum.

Yeah.

What are the takeaways you're seeing.

So the takeaways is we are preparing for battle royale.

Yeah.

On the cage.

Everyone is ready for this.

With the metal chairs no referee and just getting it.

Referee pushed out of the ring.

Like like 1980s type of WWE or whatever it was called.

We don't do that enough anymore.

I know, like, but yes, I mean, it's just the prelude to the midterm election.

Totally.

And the key question here is if Democrats are going to be able to maintain that momentum, if they do that, yeah.

Then I think things are going to have pockets of full of surprises.

Yeah.

It makes total sense.

Competition is up and that drives turnout.

We know Democrats are competing up and down the ballot.

So they've got people running in all these races.

So that's increasing turnout.

And like we said this is a nationalized race.

Yep.

This could be the most expensive Senate primary in history and could very well be the most expensive Senate race in history when all is said and done.

So there's definitely a lot of attention on this.

Let's talk about very finally, the Dallas Cowboys fans out there loving to see Nate Newton former you know great for the Cowboys part of the Great Wall of Dallas in the 1990s.

Got pardoned by Donald Trump the former Super Bowl champion.

Times three pled guilty to federal drug trafficking charges after it was found he had large quantities of marijuana in cash.

He spent 30 months.

He was but two years in prison rather.

To me, this is indication of the kind of celebrity clemency that we're seeing Donald Trump really in favor of.

What do you make of all this for Cowboys fans and for American democracy?

For American democracy?

I don't understand for Cowboys.

Fine.

I think it's good for them.

But that's something that we are definitely going to keep an eye it on our next episode.

I'm Jeronimo Cortina.

I'm Brandon Rottinghaus.

The party keeps up next week.

<Music>