Party Politics

The Battle for Texas: GOP, Paxton and Talarico

Season 5 Episode 2 | 26m 46sVideo has Closed Captions

Co-hosts Brandon Rottinghaus and Jeronimo Cortina delve into the latest news in politics

9/4/2026

Party Politics

The Battle for Texas: GOP, Paxton and Talarico

Season 5 Episode 2 | 26m 46sVideo has Closed Captions

Co-hosts Brandon Rottinghaus and Jeronimo Cortina delve into the latest news in politics

On this week’s Party Politics, co-hosts Brandon Rottinghaus and Jeronimo Cortina examine the continuing resolution, GOP political wins and plans for a televised midterm convention. They also break down the Texas Senate race and ad blitz, Gov. Greg Abbott’s Flock camera funding decision, Ken Paxton’s video game appearance, and Meta’s $1 billion settlement with Texas.

9/4/2026

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Party Politics is a local public television program presented by Houston PBS

Party Politics

The Battle for Texas: GOP, Paxton and Talarico

Season 5 Episode 2 | 26m 46sVideo has Closed Captions

9/4/2026

Problems playing video? | Closed Captioning Feedback

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<Music> Welcome to Party Politics, where we prepare you for your next political conversation. I'm Jeronimo Cortina. And I'm Brandon Rottinghaus. We are professors of political science at the University of Houston and obviously co-host of this great show, Party Politics, where we talk about all of the craziness in politics. National Texas. Let's start with the US House of Representatives. Speak, my friend, right into it. They're back for like a week. And then probably they're going to go on like break again. The concern is that there's simply not much more for them to do. There are internal strife about what the Republicans should accomplish. They're willing to kind of take a knee on this and say, like, let's just get to halftime here and see, like if whatever we can convince the voters of to be true is going to hold politically, they were able to pass a bill basically to get to the president to fund government pass the 30th of September shutdown date to December. So that's a plus. They're not going to have to fight about that during an election season. But there are still some consternation from Republicans. First of all, the way they did it, the some Republicans don't like. And it also has a ban on hemp. That was part of what was going to happen in November. But now this basically partners those together. So it gives a reprieve to that, which is becoming another flashpoint politically in Texas and across the country. So there's a lot going on here. The House is still a bit of a mess. What do you think is going to happen with respect to like the election? Because that's really the concern here. Of course, Mike Johnson says this is the most aggressive and productive Congress since Harry Truman was in office. The numbers. Okay.

Look on your face. The numbers don't back that up. Although they're pushing to say like it's about the impact of legislation, the tax cuts they're offering and some of the other dynamics in terms of legislation not like the total volume, which is way, way lower. So the question then is like, what does all this mean in terms of the politics of the midterm? Well, obviously, you know, they were both parties super anxious about defusing these potential bomb doing the midterm election. Yeah. But the interesting thing I think is going to be, well now that thing is over. Right. Let's kick the can 15 weeks ahead after the election and we'll see what happens. That's going to be battle royale. That's going to be something that, depending on who wins, is going to be a complete bloodbath. In terms of starting the, I guess, lame duck years of the executive branch. So it's going to be very, very. The president was wrestling, right. And so, yeah, I fully expected him to come out with a folding chair and like a Hulk Hogan style, like. With the elbow boy. From the third. The rail.

Yeah.

Boom. You know what?

Yeah, I'm here for it.

This is politics, right? I mean, that's that's something that is going to happen. And it seems that they can get together in great numbers to pass legislation that benefits both parties in such a way to avoid catastrophe. Yeah. Well, We're seeing cracks in both parties facades like so I mentioned that the Republicans are fighting internally about lots of stuff. There's always been this kind of disconnect with leadership, but now there are Democrats in the same boat, basically the leader, Jeffries, saying that like some of the members of the Democratic caucus have crossed the aisle to vote with Republicans for procedural issues, not on substantive issues, but it definitely was a kind of eye opener, like, what's going on here? I think to me, I mean, part of it is that kind of dysfunction of the House these days. So certainly there's something there, but it's also just the coalitions themselves are really in flux. They're not sure how to handle this new politics.

Right. The midterms have shaken a lot of stuff up. You've got kind of the moderation is a through thread for a lot of these things. And both Republicans and Democrats, especially those in moderate districts, are saying we're not going to just lockstep all the party and get more. So that has serious implications for governing, especially, as you said, kind of in the midterm. But the question is like, did the Republicans do enough to be able to claim political credit for the things going right? So they're saying things like campaigning on the so-called one big beautiful bill, which gives tax breaks to people for tips. And over time, it created these Trump accounts for little babies who you can sort of this money and they'll match it doubling the child tax credit. And they're claiming a secure border. So these are all potentially winners among the electorate. But then you look even broadly and we have this sort of undeclared war with Iran. You've got, you know huge deficit. You've got multiple sex and ethics scandals swirling around. They actually just censored one of their own House members. So there's a lot of things that people could look at and say not going well, so how's it going to land? Basically? Well, it's not going to land well. And the problem with this thing is that the issues are temporal issues. Like, for example, you get your child tax credit once a year on April 15th. Yeah, right. That thing has already passed. People have already forgotten. They don't even remember one thing. Yeah. No tax on on on tips and extra time.

Yes. I mean that particularly for a very particular segment of the population. But then the other stuff in terms of tax cuts and the babies and this and that, do not necessarily travel through time until November. That's one issue.

Yeah. And we know from scholarship that voters don't remember these things. Oh absolutely not.

And certainly they're not reminded. You remember what you did yesterday. Not even I remember for breakfast like. So there you go. But but the issue here is that when you confront that, you know, the tax credit etcetera, etcetera, etcetera, and then going every, every single week or maybe two times a week, right. To the gas station.

Yeah. And to the supermarket and you're seeing your rent going up, etc., etc.. Then it's like. This is what i'm asking.

Yeah. It seems like it falls flat in the context of what else is going on. And it's going to be a kind of a tough lift. So I think then to pivot to Texas, the Republicans are converging on Dallas. Yep.

Big D is going to host this convention. That's pretty rare. A midterm convention has not happened in recent memory, at least in this very kind of functional way. It's essentially a big fundraiser and to some degree a party. But it takes place in the context of Donald Trump's approval ratings being under 40%, which is not a good space for incumbent president, especially as handling the economy is really low. There's this endless kind of campaign happening in Iran which people are confused and concerned about. And even top military folks say this isn't sustainable in the long term. You've got a trade war with Canada and fights over how to name our Great Lakes, right? And, you know, basically inflation still stubbornly high. So I guess the question is then, is this a reset moment right then for the Republicans, who can use this as a pivot forward to kind of brag about the stuff that they think is going well and convince people that that is the path forward? Well, I mean, again, here is the issue. President Trump is extremely polarizing. So if they're trying to energize the base, I don't think that the base needs energizing. I think that those that are going to support President Trump are going to support President Trump, regardless of whatever happens, right. Number one. Number two, the RNC chairman, Joe Gruters, says that this would be a Trump Appaloosa, right. And that President Trump will unite Republicans around the shared vision and so on and so forth. But again, the issue is, yes, you might unite some Republicans. First of all, because he's not all Republicans, but they're already united. Number two. And number three, you are going to simply exacerbate the demobilization effect that you may have with those Republicans that do not necessarily agree with President Trump and obviously mobilize a lot of Democrats. That's what I was getting at. Yeah. Is that like, you know, President Trump is extremely polarizing, and he's not the asset he once was. I still wouldn't bet him again against him. In some of these red states absolutely not.

Right. So the rally.

You. Never know especially yeah for rally Republicans. But there's an enthusiasm gap that's really problematic for Republicans. And they have to close that. Maybe this will do the thing. But a lot of Republicans are simply not coming because it's too expensive, basically. Like you have to pay to go. And a lot of Republicans are saying, I'd rather campaign in my district and save that money than have to go to Dallas and, you know, basically be part of this Trump palooza, which has its limitations. The other thing to note is that this is in competition with the NFL, basically. Like that's a huge like cohort that Republicans are hoping to be able to rally. And they're in direct competition, at least in terms of like the televised version of this with the NFL for those days. So that could create a kind of conflict with JD Vance is going to be there. And President Trump's giving the kind of final night's kind of speech. And so it's just going to conflict in a way that you're going to have to choose whether you want to learn about politics or whether you want to watch the 49ers and the Rams play. And I think most people probably would choose football. So, yeah, especially the people in Trump's coalition. So it's a potential downside. Now they're clearly going to do a lot more right. Social media stuff. And so they've got a lot of made for kind of social moments. But it still creates some problems. But I want to shift this to talk about Texas because obviously it's in the backyard of the Lone Star State and we've got a competitive Senate race. So the question is sort of what this might mean for how the Senate race is going to play out. I don't know, I mean. There's a lot that we're not sure. About. Once again, it's I don't know if the strategy of the Republican Party is thinking that the Republican Party is a homogeneous set of voting block, but the reality is it is not right. And the reality is, if you're exacerbating people that do not necessarily agree with either Paxton or President Trump or whatnot might not split the vote, right one way or the other. I, especially those that lean Republican. But then the other particular issue is about those Republicans that are just going to sit out and the the this election is going to be decided by independence, right. So what's the impact of putting gas on the fire? Yeah, right. Because it's not going to be a convention where you're going to be talking about public policy, and you're not going to be talking about issues regarding the big beautiful bill and how it has created X, Y, or Z. Yeah, that's not going to happen. It's going to be red meat towards red meat plus a grill. The grill that with a side of red meat. With a side of red meat.

Right. So the issue here is what's going to be the impact of those independents, that you need 1,000% to be in your coalition. And the same applies to Democrats as well.

Yeah. And you can look at the things that they've been talking about that they're going to talk about, which include things like the secure border, which is definitely polarizing, going to talk about the assassination of Charlie Kirk. It's been one year. They're talking about 9/11 terror attacks, 25th anniversary. So there's a lot of sort of polarizing issues that are going to come up. And it's definitely not going to play as well with independents who are really skeptical that the Republicans are kind of focused on those core issues. I think to me, this is both a rally mission and a rescue mission. This is certainly true for Ken Paxton. There's serious concern that he's not going to be able to raise the money. We'll talk about that in a second. And certainly it's not flowing the way it is for Talarico. That can easily change. And they're super PACs to be able to like, you know, just poured tons of money on Texas. But it's still the case that Paxton needs more help than most other Senate candidates across the country. So certainly that's true for Georgia, for Maine, for Iowa. Like they're Republicans are sort of underwater in those places. But it's not like it is in Texas where like, you could literally lose the state, which would be like a serious psychological blow. So I think they're hoping this will kind of jumpstart Paxton's fundraising, at least put a kind of, you know, kind of real clear bat signal on this to say, like, we need your help, right? It's like an elephant in the sky, right?

Like, but the thing is, like. Yeah, your point is good. Like they jumped over the persuasion question, right? Like, they're going right to mobilization. And I think that's too early for that. Like, there's still people who could be convinced by this message but that they're not doing a good job. We'll talk about Meta in a few minutes where Ken Paxton scored a pretty big win, and then I even talking about it like there is a moment here where they can do these things and really run a slightly different playbook and be successful, but it's simply not. I mean, if you look at the numbers, basically Republicans are out voting Democrats by about a million on average. Republicans on statewide campaigns, midterms and presidential are getting about 6 million. The Democrats are getting about 5 million. So it's really a foot race here. And if some of those people cross over and or Democrats can get people to show up. Or sit out.

Yeah. Then all of a sudden it's a much tighter margin. Half a million votes in a place like Texas is overcome for Democrats. So I think that's the real worry that they face. So and the issues are really driving this. So let's talk about one big one that has come up kind of as a surprise.

Right. The data center issue was a slow burn. The flock camera issue is like a lightning bolt. So the news is that Governor Abbott has blocked state agencies from spending more money on flock cameras. The storyline is really interesting in '23. In that session, The Ledge voted unanimously to pass a law that basically took a dollar from insurance costs to give to these organizations, these these agencies, to combat catalytic converter theft. I have friends who have gotten their catalytic converter stolen, and it's such a hassle. So the Ledge responded by basically funding an effort to try to collect information about people who might be doing wrong. Thus, the army of flock cameras all everywhere. I'm sure there's some watching us right now, right? There aren't any other cameras around, just the flocks. So it's become a real flashpoint for a lot of voters. The polling on this is awful. People don't trust it. People are worried. There are no safeguards. I think that's the problem. People could be convinced that this is like a legitimate law enforcement tool. But as it is, it kind of surprised people. So what's the politics of this? Does this hurt Greg Abbott? I don't think it hurts. Greg Abbott. I think to the contrary, I think that the governor says that technology must be controlled and use responsibly. And and, you know, I think that when he inserts that into the whole flock camera debate it's the right thing to do. On the one hand, on the other hand, is the misuse by certain individuals of basically, you know, surveilling people without a warrant or following the ex-boyfriend or ex-girlfriend or something like that.

Yeah. So that is not good. And then we can take, for example, a page of how the UK does it.

Right. London is 1,000% packed with cameras all over the place, but there are a lot of guardrails to do that. And they can have a significant impact on public safety, right, in a positive way. So it's once again, it's the same thing with data centers. It's like, oh yeah, let's build the data centers.

Yeah. Like wait wait wait. Let's think about this for a second, realize it's happening. And they're like, wait a minute.

Yeah. We just have to think.

About it. Yeah. And then the same thing with the flock cameras. What are going to be the guardrails? It's not a blank check for, I guess, police organization whatnot. Just like, oh yeah, let's put up. No, let's think about it. Just your legislature doesn't think through the implications of their decisions. I'm not going to deny nor confirm. On the building like this is just the par for the course, like since 1880. But yeah, I take your point, and I think you're exactly right. The polling on this is awful for them, because it certainly suggests people are really worried about this, because I think it didn't get the kind of build that it needed. If you look at the positives that the flock cameras can bring, I think people made absolutely find ways to support it. And for a dollar, you know, it's probably worth it. But you're seeing cities react to this like vehemently. Pflugerville has recently considered termination because there was a story that their flock cameras had been accessed 1.6 million times in the last six months. Like, what are they looking for? That's the question. Places like Austin, Wylie, San Marcos, Bandera have all ended their relationships with flock. And so there's definitely like local concern that this is not something people want. You know, obviously Abbott is getting ahead of the backlash here, right. There was a kind of surprise that this all happened. I think most people didn't know. I certainly didn't know. So all of a sudden this is an issue. So politically, I think you're right. It actually can benefit the governor. Say, look, I stopped this from going any further. Not to say it wasn't partially his fault in any signed the bill, but like this is certainly an issue. But you know, we're seeing candidate like Gina Hinojosa say like, well look this is all in your watch right? There's a bit of fatigue from Republicans. Abbott's running for an historically unprecedented fourth term. And I think the fact that you are looking at all these problems and they're kind of percolating up means that, like opponents can say you're doing it wrong. Right.

And this is a problem. So yeah, I think that's definitely an issue as an optical problem for the Republicans. Right. The other thing is, you know, Abbott can sort of shift some of the responsibility to the administrative state, which he controls. So there's only so many places he can move. This is the best movie he could get probably in the short term. So I do think this will be something the Ledge will consider right in the upcoming session. And I hate to even bring it up, but we have yet another session of the Texas Legislature upcoming. Indeed, this is going to be an issue that they'll talk about. But what does the governor do? Does he put it as an emergency item to say, I'm going to try to get some guardrails on this. There's only so much bandwidth. Here, right? We're months away from the session. I think that eventually they're going to have some committee work. Get the ball rolling again. Sorry, I don't think that right now the governor has appetite to to to bring an executive I mean a special session. Oh no it's way too late for that You never know. But I don't think it would be. Well, you know. No, it's good actually the smart play here is to save it. It's a bipartisan issue. Everyone wants this, right? Even Carol Alvarado, who is a sponsor on this bill, has said this was not what we intended. There has to be a legislative fix. The question is who gets credit for fixing it? And so the governor's got a great opportunity here to say, hey, look, in a session that's likely to be more bipartisan because the Democrats will probably pick up a couple of seats. You certainly have an opportunity there for the governor. Sure. Look, here's a great opportunity for us to, like, share this responsibility. Let's talk about politics and let's talk about the US Senate race. John Cornyn has accused Ken Paxton of being, quote, lazy and, quote, a poor campaigner. So Ted Cruz come to his aid and said, that's not true. He's really working hard. We're going to see if we can help him. But it obviously is the case that, like we said last week, we're seeing serious differences in terms of how much money is being raised. They're seeing that money being put to use here. And no doubt anyone who's watched TV or like, look at their computer. The last few months has seen a tremendous amount of ads coming. Paxton's allies have launched a $15 million ad campaign against James Talarico, basically saying that Talarico is weak on China for some of the votes he took that were connected to how people who are foreign nationals can own property. Texas Talarico is up on TV with ads calling Ken Paxton the most corrupt politician in Texas. Talarico . Ads are run during TCU the football game, which they lost. Sorry, frogs. The frogs out there listening no doubt have their hearts broken. But definitely the politics of this are seeping through. Paxton's ads are also featuring Talarico and Ilhan Omar, where drawing back on some of the things that Talarico said in the past that capitalism is a form of oppression, or linking him to the kind of left wing of the Democratic Party. And is any of this going to move the needle, or are we just going to be fixed until. The question needs to? Little too late. On the one hand, Talarico enters with around 21, $22 million for these final stretch. And maybe Talarico if things. I mean, if the polls are keeping suggesting what they suggest, right. In terms of Talarico having an edge over Paxton, well, that might bring more money for Talarico and then those that have more money or the Republican Party saying, well, I think that this is a loss, but we cannot lose Maine. We cannot lose Michigan, we cannot lose this one. We cannot lose that one is like. Two for.

One, exactly two for one. Or just like, put all the resources into Texas and risk it very highly over the other ones and risk losing significantly the Senate. So it's not an easy calculation is not something. And again, I think Paxton is also very polarizing, right. Within the Republican Party specifically.

Yes. So yeah, I. Don't know. The other senators have basically backed John Cornyn saying, well, look Trump was your like your your dance partner to Paxton. Then let him save you on this. And Republicans including John Cornyn are saying I'm going to raise money for Republicans, but not for you. Ken Paxton.

Right. Some sour grapes.

Yeah. But also they basically telegraph this and made it clear that this was how it was going to go. So it's not surprising in this way, but it has serious implications to whether Paxton can compete for the long haul, which is coming very, very close. So I also wanted to note that I know you're a video game lover and you're going to like this one. This is a video game that features Ken Paxton. It's called Biblical Grounds Game. You can go to Biblical Grounds Game and play this little eight bit game with Ken Paxton, and it's hilarious to see it all come together. And if you know the backstory politically, it makes it even better. So there are these little, I don't know, little pieces of this that are all kind of leading to the I think problem for Ken Paxton is unable to kind of set the message, unable to set the agenda. That's new for a Republican. So interesting. The last thing we'll talk about is that you've got $1 million that Meta is owes the state of Texas, essentially the social media giant in a series of lawsuits and a settlement that eventually came from it, is going to pay Texas this big payout with the aid to be able to contribute that money to teens mental health solutions. So meta will apply strict age verification measures and institute a two hour daily limit for teens. Notifications will be disabled during school hours and a few other things. Is this a win for Ken Paxton? Is it a win for Texas? I think it's a it's a win for Ken Paxton because he started one way or the other. This battle against Meta and no one, no one believed that it was going to pan out. And again then you have the I guess how these forces coalesce one way or the other, with California also suing, so on and so forth. So that created, I think, the right appetite and just Meta. Like, sure, I'll give you $17 billion in. It's a rounding error for them. It's like shake the couch cushions and the money comes out. But look, it's no small amount of money, especially for Texas who can help free up some budget items for other things. That's one thing. But this to me is a an enormous political trophy for Ken Paxton. It is. He can basically boil down several of these types of lawsuits into this one to say, like, definitively, here's a big chunk of money. I have one for Texas. It reinforces his top prosecutor of big tech, which has crossover appeal. I think the independents who are worried about the size of things, the child protection side of the political argument, I think is also really compelling. So to me, this is a real big win for them, but they haven't been trumpeting it, I think, as much as they could have, again, because it's a money issue. So here's the question is like, what is the money mean, like $1 million here or there or whatever? But this is where the money matters. Like you could do a whole blitz just on this and we haven't seen it yet. So that's where the money really, I think comes to a pinch. So when we get that money, we'll see where it's going. But we'll have to wait for that one.

I'm Jeronimo Cortina and I'm Brandon Rottinghaus. The conversation keeps up next week. <Music> And the political conversation doesn't end. Here, so let's keep the conversation going. Hit the like button. Subscribe to Houston Public Media's YouTube channel, and make sure to turn on subscription so you can get all the new episodes of Party Politics. Thanks for watching. We'll see you next time.

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Party Politics is a local public television program presented by Houston PBS