<Music> Welcome to Party Politics, where we prepare you for your next political conversation.

I'm Jeronimo Cortina.

And I'm Brandon Rottinghaus.

We're professors of political science here at the University of Houston, and we're going to dig into some exciting stuff happening in Texas.

This is a cycle that we haven' seen this level of competition since probably 2018.

And even compared to that, it's pretty significant and pretty serious.

I want to start this discussion, which is abbreviated from our prior discussions, and kind of focus more on the way that Texas is politically right now and whether Texas will turn blue.

So it's a quote from Ted Cruz.

He says the following quote we could lose Texas, meaning Republicans.

This is a five alarm fire right now, unquote.

Do you think he's right?

Absolutely.

Yeah.

100%.

So why?

I mean, first of all I think that regardless of what people think of Ted Cruz, I think that he's and I've said it before, he's one of the most smartest politicians that we hav had in the state for many years.

Number one, I think that I don't know how, but he has a very important pulse on the sentiments of the Texas electorate.

So if he's raising the alarm, Yeah.

I don't think he' just give me more money, right?

I mean, obviousl it has to do with fund raising.

Some of it is about money, but.

For sure, for sure.

But I think that Ted Cruz is generally worried about what might happen.

Yeah.

Well, part of it is that his partner in crime, John Cornyn, the other senator from Texas, losses primary to Ken Paxton, is kind of taking his marbles and going home.

But he's not just going home.

He's going to Alaska and to Iowa and to Maine and Florida raising money for Republicans and not though for Texas.

So little sour grapes happening.

But it' certainly the case that there's going to be a real deficit here in terms of Republican money, Republican enthusiasm, potentially Republican issue priorities.

So these are all things that we're going to get into today because, like we said, we're going to deviate from talking about the kind of da to day of politics and talk more about the kind of big picture here, like what to expect in this really momentous cycle that, like I said, we haven't seen for quite a long time.

So let's first talk about th top issues and why those issues are trending in the way that they are.

Who benefits?

Who loses for each of these different types of issues?

The first thing I want to thro out is the affordability issue.

And we talked about this last season, Donald Trump saying affordability is like a made up word.

And I think that's come back to haunt Republicans who are really getting an earful from constituents who say we're hurting and it's tough to make ends meet even tougher than it has been before.

And that's not a good place for Republicans to be.

Importantly, this issue crosses over party lines 76% of Democrats, 63% of independence and 47% of Republicans cited as the number one issue.

It's displacing the border issue for Republicans as the top issue.

This has to have implications for who's going to be competitive in Texas.

Oh, absolutely.

And one of the most important things is when you ask them in terms of not only in terms of affordability, but the economy in general, right.

That number drops back.

But you have the electorate completely divided one.

One out of three voters think that the economy is 100% messed up.

Yeah.

Regardless if you're a Democrat, independent or Republican.

So that has very real implications, because what we have seen over the past weeks in Texas is that these issues are not being talked about.

Right.

And we are getting, I guess, very similar to what the last year of the Biden administration, the Biden administration was talking about stuff.

Yeah.

You know, whatever topic from what people cared about.

And people were saying like, hey, wait, like, I mean Wall Street is doing fantastic.

Good for you.

Yeah.

But the economy is not doing great for me.

But the stock marke is not the economy in that way.

And then comes in, Donald Trump and start talking about those issues i a very precise and targeted way.

And they're doing like the same thing.

It's like, hey, go back to your notes because you are repeating the same mistake.

But I guess there is no escape now.

No.

And I think you're right that this has been a long time coming.

And if the White House, I think was more certain about their approach and they were more, I think, systematic about how they talked about thing that they could be doing better.

But they're off topic to just like the end of the Biden administration And you saw what happened there.

So I think that's a real problem.

We'll talk about the Trump effect in a moment, because definitely important for Texas.

But I also think that pivoting back to the affordability issue, that because people are so laser focused on the economy, it minimizes the favorable terrain that usually exists for Republicans on these traditional kind of culture war issues.

Right.

You're still seeing Republicans to some degree, like Ken Paxton running that playbook.

And I think it's the wrong playbook, right.

You've got to shift it up.

Right.

This is a kind of situation where, like, the hardest thing to do in sports is like, come at halftime, change your strategy for what you've done, got you to that point, and pivot to a new strategy, really a challenge.

But that's what has to happen for Republicans, because the numbers don't lie here.

And I think it's creating real habits for them.

Of course.

And the issue here is, once again, reality versus culture wars and ideology.

Partisanship, cultural wars stop when gas prices are high, when you cannot afford whatever you want to purchase the supermarket, when you know rent is going up, so on and so forth.

Right.

So that's when you say, okay, fine.

Like I do not care about X, Y or Z. I just need to be able to do what I'm supposed to be doing.

Yeah.

And republic are sort of getting the message.

I mean, Greg Abbott is certainly pivoted towards the affordability issue.

And I think as kind of the I don't want to say intellectual leader of the Republican Party, but really the kind of tip of the spear for Republicans in Texas in terms of funding and organization and maybe even messaging, he's decided that that's the proper place to go.

I think he's right to do it.

I mean, maybe too late.

You mentioned this last week, but I do think that this i something that they have got to pay attention to becaus it is really a framing question.

Republicans are not getting success framing this election as about those kinds of social media.

It's easy, right, to frame it that way.

But who are you going to blame?

Well that's right.

And, you know, it's also kind of who you're going to get if you blame it, right.

You're going to get Republicans who already on your side.

But there's that meaty, persuadable set of voters who are 20, 25% of the electorate.

They're going to be the swing vote.

What they won't say, especially when you're thinking about independence, right.

Because those are the ones that you need in your coalition, as we have said before.

But, you know, the Republican Party controls Congress, the White House and here in Texas controls everything.

Yeah.

So who are you going to blame that the economy or affordability is not working?

Yeah.

Well, 30 years ago, the Republican the Democrats did this.

And yeah, but I mean.

Or the Biden administration.

And that would have worked, right.

If, especially the White House, have not used it 11,000 billion times because it's, you know, Peter and the wolf, right?

The wolf is coming, the wolf is coming.

And then it's like, no, the wolf is not coming until it comes.

And you cannot be blaming Democrats, right?

Especially Biden.

Yeah.

For where we are?

Come on.

When is like the last time you even thought about Joe Biden and like, saw him.

I mean, obviously he's, you know, kind of having medical issues with cancer and it's awful.

But it's also the case.

Yeah.

That like blaming what happened on the prior administration has worn off.

It's almost three years.

And it's exacerbated by the fact that, like the Trum administration has been pursuing these policies, which people blame as the conduit and cause of the kind of financial pinch they're in.

So, yeah, I think in both of those cases, it doesn't work that well.

And now now that you mentioned the Trump factor.

The question is how does that filter down with Republicans, Democrats and independents?

Okay.

You have five seconds.

Start now.

Yeah.

I mean, Donald Trump said weeks ago that he was coming to Texas to help Ken Paxton.

I guess the question is, does Ken Paxton want that?

Right?

The coalition certainly gives, like the kind of opportunity for Republicans to come back to the fold.

And they need the enthusiasm back, which is obviously in short supply these days.

But I also think that there are some serious issues here with respect to what the coalition looks like.

So a couple of things to note.

I mean, number one, Trump is always kind of on the ballot, whether he's on the ballot or not.

So this is definitely part of that issue.

Trump is still relatively popular.

I mean, he carried Texas by 13 points in '24.

His approval rating is underwater, but it's better than most other state officials.

So he's not like in the worst possible shape, but certainly not in as good a shape as he was.

So he's no longer the unqualified asset that he used to be.

Right.

The coalition Trump put together, which was very successful in '24, has now imploded.

Right.

Like younger voters, Black voters, Latino voters, we'll talk about in a second.

Like they've all moved in the opposite direction, right.

It's creating serious problems with the Republicans ability to rally.

I think that the Senat race provides a kind of ceiling for where Democrats, Republicans can go, and everyone else is sort of fighting to kind of get to that ceiling, including Greg Abbott and Dan Patrick and everybody else running statewide.

So Republicans are really struggling.

And the problem for the is that the coalition breaks are really complicate and don't always cut their way.

So, for instance, think about a couple of issues here that are going to split the Republican coalition.

The data center issue, which we've talked about, flock cameras, which we mentioned last week, tariffs, which have increased the price of goods.

Right.

Creating more economic consternation and THC.

Right.

How is weed going to get talked about?

It is a sleeper issue.

I think that, again, divides the Republican coalition.

So the Republican coalition isn't what it once was, and they're not getting the independence that they need because it's kind of propelling them from Donald Trump's presidency.

And then you insert the urban rural divide, right, where rural voters are not necessarily jumping into the party wagon immediately.

Right.

You have issues regarding farming, regarding branching.

You have issues regarding importing 11,000 billion tons of beef, right?

When the industry is hurting.

Significantly so.

There is a bunch of stuff right ther that it's a lot of holes, right?

It's like when you're doing repairs at your home, right?

It's like, okay, fine, I'll do it.

And then one little issue comes up and then another issue, and then another issue, and then another issue.

And you start doing 11,000- And then it's like your full time job.

Which reminds me, I need som your help with some repair work.

Yeah.

Let me know.

And after that.

You should get a website.

Yeah, exactly.

Yeah.

You cross from that stuff here on Party Politics.

There we go.

I think you're totally right.

That coalition split is really a problem.

And it's creating this enthusiasm gap, but also limiting the ability for Republicans to talk to those voters that normally they are able to talk to.

So if it's a year where Democrats are surging, Republicans are sitting on their hands, and independents are to the decision makers, it definitely is going to be a problem.

I want to ask you this question.

This seems odd to me, but it seems like that the Republicans, including Donald Trump, are victims of their own success on the border.

That border issue has slippe from being a top issue in Texas to number two behind, as we said, affordability.

The question is like, did they kind of solve the problem in air quote to say, like, we've effectively satisfie the problems at the border that, you know, even Democrats now kind of point to Joe Biden as kind of kind of progeny of.

So I'm wondering if they are kind of a victim of their own succes in basically solving the problem and having it be less important to people, especially in a world where things are financially kind of tough.

Right?

Well, I think that, yes because now I think that they're pivoting to deportations right inside the, the the US.

Right?

Yes.

Yes.

Not necessarily just, you know, the fence and this and that.

I think tha that is not a significant issue.

Let's protect the border.

And you have seen that in terms of media attention has decreased a little bit.

Right.

But now- We don't like Minnesota.

And like.

Exactly.

You know, all these places are far from the board and where you're dealing with issues that aren't like.

Right.

But again, you're moving the issue to these states are thousands of miles away from the border.

And again, immigration, the border deportation is extremely polarizing.

So the question again, that I have is, well, are you really creating what you need to create, especially to attract independents?

Yeah.

And, and to keep the Latino vote on your side.

Right.

As we mentioned a second ago, the Trump coalition did include Latinos significantly.

And that felt like it was going to be more permanent, or at least the Republicans treated it like it was to the point where they redo district lines to basically maximize the Latino vote, which they thought that they would get.

Picking up five seats in Texas.

Yeah.

The size of your eyes and reaction makes me, I think, very kind of nervou that that's not going to happen.

And for sure, I think if you look at the numbers, the likelihood of them picking five like very low, It may happen.

Right.

Yeah.

But we have seen it that historically the Latino vote tends to shift around.

Yeah.

I think it's a great point.

Right.

It's not a set.

Nope.

Like political connectio the way it is and say California or even Florida where you're seeing it kind of on the other side, it's a much more swing to kind of vote in a way that does mean that both parties are goin to have to fight for that vote.

And the Republicans started with like a ten yard advantage in this race, and they kind of squandered it, right, because of, I think, kind of complications about the border and the aggressiveness when it came to deportations.

It didn't satisfy or meet what people thought was going to happen based upon what the Trump administration promised.

So that's a real issue.

So I want to talk about the Latino vote in particular.

This is the biggest swing vote in Texas.

How do you see the way that it's going to contribute to this question about whether Texas will turn blue or not?

How can Democrat take advantage of some of those?

And how can Republicans minimize some of the losses that happen since 2024?

Well I think that if Democrats learn the 2024 lesson right is you have to talk about the right issues.

You got to choose the issues.

I have to choose the issues, right?

On the one hand.

But you also have to have a very a clear plan of what you would do.

So, you know, cost of living and inflation.

Right.

Immigration and immigration policy, public infrastructure investment in local communities.

I think that when you're thinking about public services, when you're thinking about the delivery of certain, you know, public goods to the electorate, that's a conversation.

Daily expenses, economic pressures, 2 or 3 jobs, costs that are related to sending your kids to college, so on and so forth.

So those things, if you don't know how to talk to the Latino electorate, it's going to be, you know, not as productive as you would want.

And if you go in and start talking about, I don't know, the return on investment if you have a balanced portfolio for right something, catch funds.

Yeah, right.

I don't even know.

Look how great the economy is doing.

Right?

Right.

He's not not everyone.

It's like no, I mean they're not feeling they don't.

No.

Absolutely not.

I think that's a great point.

And I kind of conceptualize this as like the Latino vote is issue responsive.

Like there are some things in which they're really triggered by and that are, you know, for right kind of politician can speak to those issues and to people's communities, then you're going to find that success.

And I think the Republican were successful at that in '24.

But they have kind of moved away from that.

And the Democrats have tried t move back into that direction.

I think there's a chance that can happen.

Look, you've got Talarico, who's spending a lot of money and time in the Valley.

You've got Gina Hinojosa who's from the Valley, right, who has been spending a lot of time in those areas and doing some campaigning on those issues.

Some of her ad are really powerful that I think kind of bring these issues hom to people, and it's persuasive.

So that's a huge factor.

The other factor is just kind of connecting back to the Trump issue is that Donald Trump is not popular among the Latino community.

Right.

And like we said, the numbers were good in '24, but they've since fallen.

The polling suggests that 67% of Texas Hispanic voters disapprove of Trump, 69% think the country is headed in the wrong direction.

That's not a good number.

And if the vote materialize in a way that could be impactful in Texas, it could be kind of really, really a huge issue.

But that's the question wil turn out affect the bottom line.

For Democrats, it's always been a concern.

It's always been a difficult position.

Oh, yes.

If Democrats cannot get people out of vote, it's not going to happen.

Yeah.

I mean- And you would have done a lot of evaluation work for organization that do get out the vote stuff.

It's really hard to get people to vote who otherwise kind of aren't ready to or aren't likely to.

So just to start from zero is really challenging.

And you don' always have to start from zero.

But politically, you have to figure out the right elections, and you have to have a structure of a campaign that's going to give people multiple touches, right.

Multiple kind of windows to be able to convince them to go vote.

And that's not easy to do.

It's also really expensive.

So the question for Democrats, and this is a classic kind of campaign situation, it's not so much they run out of money.

It's that you run out of time.

Right.

Right.

If you had a year to do it or longer, you know, you could easily kind of keep doing it.

Maybe things will change.

I mean, but I think that I see it the other way around.

I think that they still have time.

Right.

Because it is quarter to 12.

Right.

And you want to get people, I would say, energized enough.

So they said, yeah, like we need to do it.

And it's a matter it's an appeal is like the house is on fire.

We get we need to get a bucket line right now or if not, we're going to lose the house.

So I think that- The urgency is there for sure.

Like we're a month from early voting.

Yes.

You can believe it my friend.

So like it is really imperative this happens soon and the money's there for Democrats, right?

The ad war in the air is going to be you know, certainly fought over.

It's going to be like, you know, World War Two over London just bombs and, you know, constant bopping.

But like it definitely is going to be the case that like the Democrats are going to have to step on the gas her because a lot of voters in Texas and even this, this race could be decided by a small number.

It's still the case that, like, those folks have to get out to vote.

And that's not always a guarantee.

Let's talk about the rural vote.

So for the for the I think the key for Democrats is the Latino vote.

The key for Republicans to some degree is the rural vote.

There has been this shift in rural voter slightly away from Republicans.

And the reason is because it' about their pocketbooks, right?

This is not about national ideology.

This is about the kind of issues that are really affecting people in their communities.

These towns are suffering, and people are definitely hurt by grocery prices, fuel costs, health care premiums.

The state is losing significant money from Medicaid in these hospitals and rural places.

That could potentially shut a bunch of them down.

This is like people's lives and their welfare.

And a lot of rural Republicans are unhappy about where things are.

So I guess my question is, how does this play out into the scenari where traditionally the turnouts good for Republicans in these rural areas, oftentimes, as it was in 20, for better than for Democrats in urban areas.

So what's going to be the result of all this?

Well, I think it's it's kind of a mess, right.

Because it's not only one front.

Rural voters are being, I think, approached by three flanks.

Right.

And one is, is this issue about infrastructure and the whole big utilit projects, data centers, this and that and that has issues regarding, you know, very important issues for landowners, right.

Property rights.

Number one, you have issues about resource management.

Right.

And you have obviously utility costs and water.

Right.

It's lik one of the most important issues then you have or may not have depending on what happens, public school funding.

Right.

And finally, you have the economy and the tariff wars etcetera, etcetera, etcetera, generating unintended pressures on the agricultural sector that affects farming and ranching.

Families on issues are very, very, very clear input costs and the industry conditions by which now agricultural and ranching industry has to compete against the world.

So it's like, as we say in Spanish.

"no me ayudes compadre" Right.

It's like, what are you doing?

Right, right.

You're destroying everything.

Yeah.

Like.

Or are they taking it for granted in a way that could be problematic, right.

For getting that coalition together.

Because like I said, I think their key to the votes that Republicans are going to get.

And if those numbers don't show up big, then it could be a problem.

And you're seeing at least some polling hint that the rural vote is either ambivalent to Republicans or shifting towards the Democrats.

So the question for James Talarico is should you spend time in these rural areas?

I think so.

I was in Abilen this summer for a baseball game, and we saw like some Talarico signs in West Texas.

Yeah.

In Abilene, which is rural.

Yeah.

Yeah.

But it's like in the middle of rural Texas.

But he's gone to places like Abilene, like Lockhart, like in Hood County.

So he spent a lot of time there.

I guess the question is like, does it pay off?

And I think the answer is you know, it probably can right, show up, make it look like, you know, Republicans can feel comfortable defecting, right?

At least temporarily.

I mean, and I think that there is a misconception, especially when you study, you know, I would say political ideology in rural Texas, that rural Texans are 100%, 1,000% committed to the Republican Party.

My take is that rural voter are common sense voters, right.

If once again, you have these issues about, let's call it the cultural issues or social issues, right?

People are going to, you know, side perhaps with the Republican Party.

But then when the livelihood is being chipped out little by littl or at least put at risk is yes, you social issues matter.

Social issues are going to be there, your values are going to be there.

But if you ain't got a family to support, like why are you going to do?

You can't buy groceries.

Everything is harder.

So common sense issues about, you know, without entering in, in rural, in social or moral issues or whatnot, by which obviously Democrats running those places are also social conservative is common sense-resource management.

We don't have water.

What are you going to do?

And then you start with the solutions.

And I think that they hav Democrats have a way to get in.

And Republicans also need to go back and start talking about these issues.

You're certainly seeing that in these legislative hearings.

And Republican are definitely focusing on that.

Yeah, I think for Talarico, the fact that he has this religious background potentially could be appealing to some in rural communities.

I don't think it's the dissuading factor, but it certainly could be part of it.

I also think that for Talarico, you don't have to win rural Texas.

You have to just lose it less.

And so that's a plus.

Fair enough.

Last question.

Do you think Texas is going to go blue.

We've talked abou all the different ways it might.

I gues the question is prediction wise what do you think.

Well I mean I think that we have a couple of variables here.

We have competitive races, we have turnout and the demographics.

We have key issues that we just talked about.

And then you have, you know, structural factors that, you know, incumbency thi and that, party infrastructure and so on and so forth.

So that is my answer.

That is not an answer.

It's very like academic answer.

Thank you very much.

I agree with all of that.

And like we've said, there's lots of factors.

But I also think for Texas Democrats it's really not necessarily about turning Texas blue.

It's about making it more competitive.

So it's about purple Texas, not about blue Texas.

There you go.

That'll happen I think, and is happening and really has been for about 7 or 8 years.

So we're going to se the results of that pretty soon.

Yes.

And on that note, that's it for this week.

I'm Jeronimo Cortina.

And I'm Brandon Rottinghaus.

The conversation keeps up next week.

And the political conversation doesn't end here, so let's keep the conversation going.

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